What 4,165 Solana Calls Actually Did

It is easy to publish the winners. This is the whole ledger.

Over the last 90 days, measured forward from the moment each alert fired:

• 4,165 calls measured
• 417 reached 2x
• 219 reached 5x
• 124 reached 10x

Which means roughly 3,700 calls did not double. That is the real shape of memecoin signals, and it is the number we would want to see before trusting anyone, including us.

Why this number is measured the hard way

There is a specific way track records get inflated, and it is rarely deliberate — it is a database mistake that happens to flatter whoever makes it. We made it.

Most systems store a token's all-time peak market cap. When you later ask "did our call reach 10x," they compare the entry price against that peak. But the peak may have happened before the call. A token that already ran, then got flagged on the way down, scores as a 10x winner.

We had this bug. When we fixed it in August, roughly a third of our own flagged 10x calls turned out never to have reached 10x after the alert.

Every number on this page is measured from a peak recorded strictly after the alert fired. A token that ran before we said anything scores as what it was: nothing.

What we've learned from the misses

The 3,700 are more instructive than the 417.

Entry market cap matters more than anything on the token. Calls entered under $40K market cap performed two to three times better than the rest. Most alerts, across the industry and historically including ours, cluster in the $40–70K band — which measures as the worst one.

One volume floor is real. Tokens showing $2–10K of 24-hour volume at the time of the call: none of them ever doubled, and most died. Thin volume at a low market cap is normal and fine. Thin volume with nothing trading is a different signal entirely.

Drawdown predicts. A token 90% or more off its peak reached another 2x about 5 times in 100. A token within 40% of its peak did it about 37 times in 100.

Turnover is not automatically wash trading. Tokens trading 3–8x their market cap in 24 hours performed markedly better than those under 1x. Heavy volume relative to size is a sign people are actually there.

The lanes are not equal

An alert isn't an alert. Different detection paths have completely different outcomes, and we measure each separately — including the bad ones, which is how we found out that the highest-volume path was also the worst.

The lane that fires on the earliest possible detection generated the most alerts by a wide margin and produced the weakest results — a median well below the call price and the highest rate of tokens dying outright. Nothing measurable inside that lane separated the survivors from the corpses. So it's gated, not tuned.

The lanes that measure better — absorption of sell pressure, escalation across multiple independent signals, sustained growth on Robinhood Chain, range breakouts — are quieter and slower, and that's the trade. Fewer alerts, better ones.

Reading a call properly

Given all of the above, here's what a sensible reader does with any single alert, ours included:

1. Check the entry market cap. Under $40K is a materially better starting point than $60K.
2. Check volume relative to market cap, not volume in dollars. A $20K token doing $60K of volume is alive. A $20K token doing $5K is not.
3. Check the drawdown if the token isn't brand new. 90% off peak is a finished token.
4. Decide the exit before entering. Of the 417 calls that doubled, 134 are now below where they were called. Being right is not the same as getting paid.

See it yourself

The signal log shows the last 30 days of alerts with market cap at the alert and what followed — including everything that went nowhere. The board shows what's live now. Any contract address pasted into the scanner returns the same record we keep internally.

We publish the misses because a track record without them isn't a track record. 4,165 calls, 417 doubles. That's the number.