How old should a memecoin be before you buy?

Two rules about age get repeated a lot. One says get in at launch, because that is where the big multiples are. The other says avoid anything older than two weeks, because old coins are done. We checked both against the tokens our alerts sent on Robinhood Chain and Solana from 24 August to 5 October 2026. In that sample both rules are half right, and the middle is where the odds were best.

How we measured it

We used the tokens our alert lanes sent between 24 August and 5 October 2026, graded on what each did over the next seven days. That is 2,922 graded sends, 611 on Robinhood Chain and 2,311 on Solana. For each token we took its first send only, and worked out its age at that moment from the earliest launch or pool time we have for it.

Three outcomes per token:

• 2x and 5x: did the price reach two or five times the price at the alert within seven days.
• Died: did the token go to near zero within seven days.
• Median 7-day multiple: the middle result.

These are tokens our lanes chose to alert, not every token on the chain. That matters, and we come back to it below.

The numbers

Robinhood Chain

Solana

What the table says

Brand-new tokens die the most. Tokens under a day old died within a week 65.6% of the time on Robinhood Chain and 51.2% on Solana. On Robinhood Chain they doubled at least as often as older tokens did, so the problem is not a lack of upside. The problem is that most of them go to zero within the week.

One to fourteen days was the best window on both chains. It had the highest median result on both chains and the highest 5x rate on both. On Solana it also had the highest 2x rate, 25.6%, against 11.3% for tokens under a day old.

Old tokens rarely 5x. On Robinhood Chain they also rarely died. Over 14 days old, the 5x rate fell to 1.7% on Robinhood Chain and 3.4% on Solana. Counting every send, not just the first per token, it was 1.5% against 5.6% for 1-14 days on Robinhood Chain, and 1.8% against 7.5% on Solana. On Robinhood Chain only 4.2% of these older tokens died within a week, so there an old token was a different trade: smaller moves, much less chance of a wipeout. On Solana it was not: 22.0% of tokens over 14 days old died within a week, about the same as the 22.4% for 1 to 14 days, from a small group of 59.

So "avoid coins older than two weeks" is half right. On both chains they gave fewer big multiples. On Robinhood Chain they were also the group least likely to die; on Solana they were not.

Most of the 2x gap comes from which alert fired

Different alert lanes fire on tokens of different ages. When we compared each send with the average for its own lane, most of the gap in 2x rates went away. So in this sample, age told us less about how likely a token was to double than the raw table suggests. We did not run the same lane check on the death rates, so we cannot say how much of that gap comes from the lanes too.

Old tokens can still break out

Our Range Finder watches Robinhood Chain tokens that hold a tight market cap band for days, and logs when they break out. For the Robinhood Chain breakouts it logged from 6 August to 11 October 2026, by the token's age at the breakout:

A two-to-four-week-old token breaking out of a range did about as well as a younger one. In this sample, age alone was not a reason to skip a breakout. The Solana breakout groups were too small to read.

Why the middle window may work

In our alert sample, a token that had already survived its first day was far less likely to die within the week: 21.6-22.4% for 1 to 14 days, against 51.2-65.6% for tokens under a day old. A token under two weeks old may also still have room for a slower second move. On Robinhood Chain, the 60 tokens that went 10x in the 60 days to 13 September 2026 (roughly mid-July to mid-September) took a median of 36 hours from when we first saw them to their second leg up, and about 9.4 days to reach their peak. That is a different sample from the alert table above, so read it as a pattern, not proof. The lesson on how long pumps last covers that timing.

What this does not tell you

• These are tokens our alert lanes picked, not every launch. Tokens the lanes skipped could look different.
• We could not find a launch time for 117 Robinhood Chain sends and 75 Solana sends, so those are left out.
• The Solana group over 14 days old is small: 59 tokens.
• The alert sample covers about six weeks, 24 August to 5 October 2026, in one market.
• The 10x runner timing comes from a separate, smaller sample: 60 Robinhood Chain tokens, roughly mid-July to mid-September 2026.

What to do with it

Read the age before you read the chart, and let it set the plan rather than the verdict.

• Under a day old: assume most will die. Size small, set the stop first, and read who bought the launch before anything else. The bundle lesson shows how.
• One to fourteen days old: the best odds in our alert sample on both chains. Run a scan, read who bought the launch, and plan the exit before you buy.
• Over two weeks old: expect smaller moves. On Solana, do not assume an old token is a safe one. A range breakout on an old Robinhood Chain token can still be worth a look.

The Scanner answers "Am I early?" with how far the token has run from launch, from its peak, and from where PumpPill first logged it. On Trending at /tables, the Age column puts the same question in one number.